The next steps in selecting a Prime Minister rest firmly on Constitutional provisions and the President’s discretion.
That’s according to Political Analyst, Professor Hamid Ghany. His comment comes after Prime Minister Dr. Keith Rowley revealed that Minister Stuart Young was the PNM Parliamentary Caucus’ choice to lead when Dr. Rowley steps down.
The announcement has stirred political discussions across the country.
“Dr. Rowley has signalled that he’s no longer willing to serve, and by virtue of that, he is signalling to create a vacancy. In advance of that, the PNM had a caucus meeting. They took a straw poll, and it appears that Minister Young got a majority of the MPs who were present in the caucus and taking the straw poll.”
But Professor Ghany said this means that he has the support of the majority of the MPs, but the signatures of 21 MPs are needed to be able to satisfy the President that they have a majority of the House.
“So that there are 21 PNM MPs, and if all 21 voted for Stuart Young, then there is no problem with the President. So I’m seeing that there’s going to be an issue because Dr. Rowley said a majority of the caucus voted in favour of Stuart Young.”
He said this kind of early succession planning is rare in Trinidad and Tobago, and stressed that the final decision lies with the President.
“It is a Presidential discretion, and whatever criteria the President uses to make a final determination, it is an opinion by the President that that person is most likely to command the support of a majority, so it’s a Presidential discretion. Everything from here on goes to the President. The President is the one to make the call and the appointment.”
Until Dr. Rowley announces when he is demitting office, the question arises as to what the President will accept. According to Prime Minister Rowley, the membership of the PNM will not get an opportunity to participate in the process until 28th September 2025, during the party’s Convention.
“Parliament is going to stand dissolved on the 27th of August, so that what is happening is that it means to say that the PNM Convention is not being held until one month after Parliament stands dissolved, if not sooner dissolved. I mean Parliament could be dissolved at any time along the way here, but it certainly cannot go beyond August 27th. The problem that the Government is going to face if they wait that late is that you have to have a budget passed certainly by the end of October.”
Professor Ghany said with this in mind, the next question would be at what point is the dissolution going to take place and who is going to dissolve it.
“Is it that Dr. Rowley is going to dissolve before they appoint Stuart Young, and he can be appointed during a period when Parliament is dissolved under Section 76.4, or is it that he’s going to hand over the reins to Stuart Young and the President is going to agree and appoint him under Section 76.1b of the Constitution, and he, Stuart Young, will decide at a future date when to dissolve Parliament? So who dissolves Parliament is going to be a critical issue.”
Professor Ghany said this is the first time that a Prime Minister has announced his successor.
Historically, leadership changes have been sudden or prompted by elections, citing examples like the 2001 ‘18-18’ tie, and Dr. Eric Williams’ passing in office.